NavInfo (002405) Annual Report Review: 2018 Business Dismantling
Investment Highlights 2018 & 19Q1 Performance Analysis The company’s operating income in 201821.
34 trillion, a decrease of one year.
1%, net profit attributable to mother is 4.
79 trillion, an increase of 80 in ten years.
7%, the net profit after deducting non-attribution is -10.
57 trillion, a reduction of 581 a year.
The main factors affecting the performance include: (1) The decline in the growth rate of domestic passenger car sales has led to a decrease in downstream demand.
(2) The former holding subsidiary of the company, Tuba BVI, increased its capital and shares, and completed the delivery procedures on November 23, 2018. It will no longer be consolidated.
The one-time increase in investment income for this transaction is 10.
(3) The subsidiary Jiefa Technology has not fulfilled its performance commitments, reducing the company’s reduction of the consideration paid to Jiefa’s original shareholders, and Jiefa equity transfer performance compensation amount6.
At the same time, the company accrued goodwill impairment on Jiefa8.
8.6 billion yuan.
In Q1 2019, the company’s operating income was 5.
22 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.
3%, net profit attributable to mothers is 42.03 million yuan, a decrease of 42 per year.
7%, the net profit after deducting non-attributed mothers was 35.22 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.
The preliminary growth in the quarter includes: 1) The profit for the same period in 2018 includes the consolidation of Jiefa Technology in January and February.
2) The intermediary subsidiary Tuba Technology intervened. In 19Q1, it may change, and the parent company will count it into investment income according to the equity method, which will bring some performance drag.
Business spin-off 1: Navigation business, or the warming-up navigation electronic map business mainly includes: mainly including map data, data compilation and navigation software.
There is a certain correlation between the navigation business and the vehicle sales data of the former OEMs.
According to the data of the China Federation of Passenger Consortiums, China’s passenger car sales in 2018 were 22.35 million, a decrease of 5 per year.
8%, with a production of 23.09 million units, a decrease of 5 over the previous year.
Revenue from navigation electronic map business in 2018 was 7.
75 ppm, a reduction of 17 per year.
6%, gross margin is 91.
3% (indicating that the product is more standardized).
The growth rate of the navigation business income in 2018 exceeded our expectations. We believe that the preliminary includes: first, the large industry background.
In June 2018, China’s annual passenger car sales showed negative growth, and downstream demand temporarily fell.
Secondly, the penetration rate of large-screen domestic passenger cars has gradually increased. We believe that the penetration rate of four-dimensional navigation electronic maps for domestic independent brands may have increased.
In 2018, the growth of passenger car sales mainly occurred from internal self-owned brand cars, and the sales of some joint venture high-end brand cars maintained double-digit growth.
Third, the negative growth rate of domestic automobile sales occurred in June 2018, and the negative growth in the following months.
Siwei’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2018 still accounted for 15% growth, and the decline in the company’s revenue growth mainly occurred in the fourth quarter of 2018.
We believe that with the ranking of passenger car sales growth, the company’s navigation business may be in a late 厦门夜网 stage of stay for 2-3 months. Business Outlook: 1. We believe that the growth rate of China’s automobile sales in 2019 may show a pattern of low front and high back (ie, the growth rate in the second half of the year is better than the growth rate in the first half), and the downstream demand of the company’s navigation business may gradually pick up.
From January to March 2019, China’s passenger car sales growth rates were -4.
Compared with the decline rate at the end of 2018, the overall downward trend in 19Q1 has improved.
2. The penetration rate of front-mounted car navigation still has room for improvement.
According to Analysys data, the penetration rate of China’s passenger car front-mounted navigation system in Q2 201814.
9%, through increased demand for in-car entertainment, 重庆耍耍网 increased penetration of intelligent driving, and increased sales of mid-to-high-end cars, the penetration of front-mounted car navigation is still increasing.
3. The penetration rate of local brands has increased.
As the proportion of domestic large-screen brands increases, Siwei ‘s coverage of domestic independent models may increase.
Business spin-off 2: Internet of Vehicles business, which is expected to usher in data realization. The four-dimensional Internet of Vehicles business includes passenger car and vehicle networking, commercial vehicle and vehicle networking, and dynamic traffic information products and services.
Passenger car networking mainly provides Welink mobile car networking solutions, WeCloud application platforms and solutions, intelligent network connection operating system, Call-Center system and cloud services, and vehicle hardware.
Commercial vehicle vehicle networking provides intelligent vehicle networking terminal equipment, vehicle networking operation systems and big data platforms, mobile terminal application products and integrated solutions that can face the front-loading and rear-loading markets at the same time.
Dynamic traffic information products and services, providing application products and customized services for customers in different fields, mainly including advanced traffic information, event information, simple graphics, traffic prediction, text and voice and other forms of traffic information services.
The main subsidiaries that undertake the above three businesses include: Mapbar technology, China Satellite, Century Qualcomm and so on.
In August 2018 and September 2018, the company introduced strategic investors to Zhonghuanyu Satellite and Tuba respectively.
Siwei’s shareholding in Zhonghuan Satellite is from 70.
98% canceled 43.
68%, Siwei’s stake in Tuba from 60.
32% is about 45.
The time for the completion of the capital increase and stock expansion is November 23, 2018.
At this point, Tuba will become the company’s associate subsidiary and will no longer be consolidated in 2019.
In 2018, Tuba’s operating income was 1.
50,000 yuan, net profit is -1.
700,000 yuan (2017 Bar revenue of 49.92 million yuan, net profit is -1.
Zhonghuan Satellite Business Revenue 2.
300,000 yuan, net profit is -0.
6.4 billion (2017 revenue was 1.
79 trillion, net profit is 2.25 million yuan).
Century Qualcomm’s operating income was 2.
4.8 billion yuan, net profit is 0.
7.9 billion (2017 revenue was 2.
110 thousand yuan, net profit is 0.
Business Outlook: Based on the growth rate of the above several business revenues, we can trim it.In 2018, the four-dimensional connected vehicle business saw rapid growth.
1. The Internet of Vehicles business is expected to be the business in which the company’s business model is gradually implemented in the next two years.
Passenger vehicle networking continues to circle users, and commercial vehicle networking is looking for different commercial landing scenarios. 2. Passenger car-to-vehicle networking has increased the coverage of downstream products for car-to-vehicle connected products by introducing strategic investors such as Tencent Fund, Weilai Capital, Shanghua Capital and other strategic investors.
Therefore, in the short term, the coverage of passenger car-to-vehicle users is worthy of attention.
3. Commercial vehicle and vehicle networking. We think that it is more to find channels and scenarios for data realization. The relevant industrial chain switches include: OEMs, car owners and drivers, logistics companies, aftermarket service providers, financial insurance, and carless carriers.Wait.
The landing of the commercialization scene may be a place worth paying attention to in this business.
Business Spin-off III: Advanced Assisted Driving and Autonomous Driving Businesses, products continue to mature. The business mainly includes high-precision maps, high-precision positioning, ADAS solutions and overall solutions including autonomous driving-related data, chips, algorithms and related cutting-edge technologiesR & D.
We believe that the current revenue contributed by this business mainly comes from ADAS map data and ADAS solutions.
The proportion of this business in the company’s revenue is still relatively small, but the growth rate is very fast.
Another concern is the progress of 4D HD maps (high-precision maps).
In 2018, the revenue of advanced assisted driving and autonomous driving business was 52.93 million yuan, an annual increase of 24.
In view of product transformation and downstream product demand upgrade, we believe that the business is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Business Outlook: 1. Product: The company’s ADAS map has gradually matured and has been widely used in Tesla, Weilai and other models.
In the face of HD maps above L3, they are gradually being improved, and they are continuously testing with Tier1 manufacturers and car manufacturers.
2. Customers (commercialization landing): In 2019, we saw that four-dimensional precision map orders have begun to land, and the first advanced order is locked in BMW.
We believe that customers of 4D traditional electronic navigation maps, including Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Tesla and other mid-to-high-end car companies, are expected to still choose 4D high-precision map products.
3. Critical time schedule 2020 & 2021.
We see that the three major European car manufacturers ABB (Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW) and major Japanese car manufacturers (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) have already announced their mass production plans for L3 vehicles.
We estimate that the mass production time of traditional L3 vehicles will be around 2021.
From this, it can be estimated that the time when the high-precision map order will land is 2019-2020.
4. Advanced maps are just one of the four-dimensional layouts in the field of intelligent driving. The company inherits and upgrades from traditional electronic maps to natural products with high-definition maps.
In addition, we should pay more attention to the layout of the four-dimensional smart driving overall solution, which is a fusion of four-dimensional high-precision maps, algorithms, and chip-related core products.
In 2018, we have seen that the four-dimensional intelligent driving solution has been tested on Great Wall Motors.
Business spin-off 3: chip business, new products are constantly landing. The main business is the subsidiary Jiefa Technology. The product line includes: IVI chip, AMP chip, MCU chip, TPMS chip (under development), smart cockpit and ADAS chip (under development)).
Jeffery’s income in 2018 was 5.
79 trillion, net profit is 1.
We believe that the chips that contributed revenue in 2018 mainly came from IVI chips, and may also include a small amount of AMP chips.
In December 2018, Jiefa’s MCU chips also began mass production.
Business Outlook: 1. The pace of mass production of new products.
AMP has been mass-produced at the end of 2017, and the MCU has also begun mass-production in December 2018.
The two new products are expected to gradually contribute to the revenue, but the real volume needs a time course, especially the current MCU products are mainly two control unit chips for car windows and wipers.
With the increase in the number of products and the increase in the number of selected models, it is expected to initially contribute revenue.
2. Competitiveness of the old product IVI.
IVI chips are expected to continue to increase penetration in front-loading OEMs, and price competition for rear-mounted IVI chips will ease easing.
Jiefa IVI chips have more room for business expansion in the former OEMs.
3. TPMS is expected to gradually enter mass production in 2019-2020; focus on the pace of mass production of intelligent cockpits and ADAS chips.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 4 respectively.
2.8 billion / 5.
07/6.09 thousand yuan, EPS is 0.
32 yuan / 0.
38 yuan / 0.
46 yuan, currently expected corresponding PE is 80 times, 67 times, 56 times.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Downstream demand recovery was lower than expected risks; new products landed more than expected risks.