Depth * Company * Guanglianda (002410): How to understand the current forecast after 19H1 exceeds expectations?
The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 13.
800 million, an increase of 28.
7%; net profit was 89.54 million, down 39.
1%; deducting non-net profit of 61.31 million, down 53.
After the restoration of cloud pre-receipt, revenues increased rapidly and the revenue side exceeded expectations, and the construction business potential was realized.
Maintain BUY rating.
Key points of the support level After reducing the cloud factor, the revenue growth rate was nearly 40%, and the net profit was over 20%.
After the cloud pre-reduction, the revenue is about 16.
4 billion (+36.
7%), net profit 3天津夜网.
200 million (+23.
5%), both achieved rapid growth.
Considering the high market share of the cost business, the construction business’ Q1 growth rate was less than 30%, and the overall revenue growth rate of nearly 40% in the first half of the year exceeded market expectations.
After the typical cost has been clouded, existing customers have been activated and incremental customers have been discovered. At the same time, the growth rate of construction business has accelerated as we expected.
Launch the 2020 evaluation system.
In our previous company depth, according to the company’s planned transformation progress assumptions, we gave 2019 359?
37.7 billion market cap.
Considering the incremental market (such as piracy conversion) and high revenue growth that were not included in the cost business at that time, the current market value of about 40 billion is still reasonable.
At the same time, according to the assumption that the two businesses will advance smoothly in the future, it will be given 446 after 2020?
The market value of 61.2 billion (median 52.9 billion) is converted into the H2 and cloud conversion indicators for 2019. The construction business growth indicators have been matched. We believe that the market value of 50 billion billion yuan has been opened.
Cloud transformation is smooth, construction investment is large, but the prospect is gradually clear.
New cloud contracts signed in the first half of the year 6.
3 billion (+ 151%), conversion rates of 72% (converted) and 31% (new conversion pricing), 45% (new conversion calculation), renewal rate of 80% (converted), healthy indicators and new regional conversionThe rate was slightly higher than expected.
The construction business is still in the input stage, and the impact of the intensity of research and development costs is expected to be prolonged. The original assumption that the 300 million net profit corresponding to 1.5 billion construction income by 2020 can be reduced to 200 million (13% net interest rate), which will affect a reasonable market value of 4 billionSegment PE is 40X), which is 48.9 billion by the median.
Estimated to adjust for 2019 based on two factors: high revenue growth and R & D expenses?
Net profit forecast for 2021 is 4.
3 and 8.
70,000 yuan, EPS is 0.
55 and 0.
77 yuan (change -7?
14%), based on the segment assessment method and 48.9 billion reasonable market value in 2020, there is still more than 20% of room.
Maintain BUY rating.
The main risks faced by the rating are the continuity of construction demand is less than expected; the renewal rate changes.